Only 1 vote shy of a Nevada Senate supermajority, Democrats look to flip a seat (or more)

With several competitive primaries and the machinations of competitive general election races already beginning, there’s a lot to watch in this year’s batch of Nevada State Senate races.

Democrats currently hold 13 of 21 Senate seats — one shy of a two-thirds supermajority. This year, 10 seats are up for reelection. Democrats could gain a supermajority in the chamber by maintaining the six of those seats they currently control and flipping just one of the four Republican seats.

Democrats already have a supermajority in the Assembly. If Democrats can maintain that and flip a Senate seat, they will have enough votes to override any veto by Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo.

Lombardo, who last year set a state record for vetoing the most bills in a single session, has made preventing the Democratic supermajority a top priority.

Here’s a breakdown of the Senate races; ✔ indicates seats that are viewed as competitive for the general election:

Primaries that will decide general election

Senate District 4. Democratic state Sen. Dina Neal faces a primary challenge from Nevada System of Higher Education Regent Laura Perkins, who has already been endorsed by several members of North Las Vegas Council. Neal has butt heads with North Las Vegas Mayor Pamela Goynes-Brown and others over Windsor Park, a long-neglected historic neighborhood. No Republicans or third-party candidates filed for the district, which means the winner of the Democratic primary will automatically win the general election in November.

Senate District 19. Republican state Sen. Pete Goicochea is term-limited and barred from seeking re-election in this deep red district. Seeking to replace him are three Republicans: former Assemblyman John Ellison, Nye County School Board Trustee Chelsy Fischer, and businessman William Hockstedler. No Democrat filed for the race, so the primary will decide who represents the district.

Primaries likely to decide general election

Senate District 1. This deep blue district features a Democratic primary between two elected officials seeking a new office: Assemblywoman Clara Thomas and NSHE Regent Michelee “Shelly” Crawford. The Senate Democratic Caucus is backing Crawford. The winner will face Republican Patricia Brinkley in the general election. SD1 is currently represented by Democratic state Sen. Pat Spearman, who is term-limited.

Senate District 3. The Culinary union looks to flex its political muscle, with the daughter of its former secretary-treasurer challenging state Sen. Rochelle Nguyen in the Democratic primary. Geoconda S. “Geo” Hughes (daughter of Geoconda Argüello-Kline) and Culinary have said they are targeting Nguyen over her lack of support for the union’s daily room cleaning bill in last year’s legislative session. The winner of the Democratic primary will face Republican Howard Brent and nonpartisan candidate Keya “KJ” Jones in the general election, but the district is considered safely Democratic and the winner of the primary will have a significant voter advantage going into the general election.

Competitive districts

✔ Senate District 5. Republican state Sen. Carrie Ann Buck faces a primary challenge from Richard Frederick Auchmoody. Across the aisle, a Democratic caucus-backed candidate, Jennifer Atlas, competes against Christian Bishop. The winners of the respective primaries will face off in November in one of the most competitive senate districts in the state.

✔ Senate District 15. Republican state Sen. Heidi Seevers Gansert opted not to run for re-election in this Northern Nevada district, which since its last election has been subject to heavy political redistricting by Democrats. SD15 is seen as a potential red-to-blue flip, one that could help secure Democrats a supermajority. The Democratic primary has three candidates: Assemblywoman Angie Taylor, Reno Councilmember Naomi Duerr, and Johnny Kerns. The Republican primary also has three candidates: Mark Neumann, Mike Ginsberg, and Sharron Angle.

✔ Senate District 18. Like SD15, SD18 in Southern Nevada district was subject to redistricting that may help Democrats secure a red-to-blue flip. Republican Scott Hammond most recently represented the district, though he resigned in October to take a job in the Lombardo administration. Both primaries have three candidates filed. On the Republican side: Assemblyman Richard McArthur, Clark County Fire Chief John Steinbeck, and entrepreneur Josh Leavitt. Hammond has endorsed Leavitt. Lombardo has endorsed Steinbeck. On the Democratic side, Ronald A Bilodeau, Donald Connors, and Iman Joseph.

Races likely to be more interesting in general election

Senate District 11. The thing to watch in this district will likely be the general election. The incumbent, state Sen. Dallas Harris does not face a Democratic primary challenger, but Republican Lori Rogich is well funded and connected and appears poised to put up a competitive fight. The district leans Democratic but is not insurmountable. But first, Rogich must clear a Republican primary against Brian M. Paonessa.

Senate District 6. Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro faces no challengers in the Democratic primary, but she will face two during the general election: Independent American Brad Lee Barnhill and the winner of the Republican primary, which is between Jill M. Douglass and Joshua D. Stacy. SD6 has been seen as highly competitive in past cycles — Cannizzaro when defending her seat in 2020 won by less than a percent — but the voter registration advantage has moved in Cannizzaro’s favor since then, thanks to the redistricting process.

Also…

Senate District 7. Democratic state Sen. Roberta Lange is set to face Republican Leo Henderson in the general election. The district is considered deep blue.

This article has been updated to reflect SD11 will not have a Democratic primary after a candidate withdrew.