Can Lombardo break the Democrats’ Assembly supermajority? Here’s a look at the terrain.

Each of the Nevada State Assembly’s 42 seats are up for reelection this year, but that doesn’t mean all voters will have a choice to make in the upcoming June primary — or even in the November general election.

That’s because in about one-fifth of Assembly districts, only the incumbent filed to run for the office, meaning those lawmakers have already secured another term. Another roughly one-third of Assembly district races feature an incumbent who does not face a primary challenge, though they will face someone in the general election.

The end goal for Nevada Republicans this year is not to wrest control of the Assembly away from Democrats. They acknowledge there is virtually no chance of that. But a handful of races will determine whether Democrats maintain their current two-thirds supermajority in the lower chamber.

Democrats currently have the bare minimum for a supermajority in the Assembly — 28 of 42 seats. If Republicans can maintain their existing 14 seats and flip one Democratic seat, they will break the supermajority.

Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo has acknowledged breaking the Assembly supermajority is a priority because, if Democrats were to achieve a supermajority in both the Assembly and the Senate, they could override any of his gubernatorial vetoes.

Here’s a breakdown of the Assembly races; ✔ indicates seats that are viewed as competitive for the general election:

Uncontested races

Seven of the Assembly seats are already decided, with incumbents running unopposed in both the primary and general elections. These returning members include five Republicans and two Democrats, all in districts heavily favoring their respective parties. They are:

• Democratic Assemblywoman Erica Mosca, Assembly District 14
• Republican Assemblyman Toby Yurek, Assembly District 19
• Republican Assemblywoman Melissa Hardy, Assembly District 22
• Republican Assemblywoman Danielle Gallant, Assembly District 23
• Democratic Assemblyman Reuben D’Silva, Assembly District 28
• Republican Assemblyman Gregory Hafen, Assembly District 36
• Republican Assemblyman Gregory Koenig, Assembly District 38

Primary determines winner

In one Southern Nevada Democratic stronghold, the June primary determines the eventual winner. In Assembly District 7, no Republican or third-party candidates filed to run. That means the winner of the Democratic primary will automatically win the general.

James M. Fennell and Tanya Flanagan are vying for the seat, which is currently vacant but was most recently held by Democrat Cameron “C.H.” Miller. Miller resigned in October in order to run for Las Vegas City Council.

Open seats

In addition to AD7, 10 other assembly districts involve open seats, meaning an incumbent is not running for whatever reason. Those districts are:

• Assembly District 4. ✔ Republican Lisa Cole and Democrat Ryan Hampton are set to face off in November. The winner will succeed Republican Assemblyman Richard McArthur, who is now running for state senate. AD4 is seen as a potential red-to-blue flip. In 2022, no Democrat ran for the seat, which cleared an easy path for McArthur, but in 2020 and 2018, Democrat Connie Munk was competitive, losing in the latter year by less than 1 percentage point.
• Assembly District 6. In the Democratic primary, Derek A. “Bish” Rimson, Jovan Alexander Jackson, and Walter “Boo” Jones III are running. In the Republican primary, Geraldine Lewis and Nephi “Khaliki” Oliva are running. Notably, Oliva was recently arrested by Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department for fraudulently posing as a concealed carry weapons instructor after his license was revoked. AD6 is a safely Democratic district currently represented by Democratic Assemblywoman Shondra Summers-Armstrong, who is now running for Las Vegas City Council.
• Assembly District 10. Three Democrats are competing in the primary: Kyle Greenwood, Venise Karris, and Val Thomason. No Republicans filed in the district, so the winner of the Democratic primary will face Libertarian Sean Moore in November. The AD10 seat is currently vacant after Democrat Sabra Smith Newby resigned in September to become deputy city manager of the City of Las Vegas. The district is considered safely Democratic.
• Assembly District 11. Cinthia Moore and Thomas Lambert face off in the Democratic primary, while Anthony Manesa and Jeffrey Lustick face off in the Republican primary. The district is safely blue and is currently represented by Democratic Assemblywoman Bea Duran, who announced in October she would not run again, citing a desire to spend more time with her family.
• Assembly District 17. Chauntille Roberts, Linda F. Hunt, and Mishon D. Montgomery compete in the Democratic primary. The winner will go on to face Republican Robert J. Olson in the general election. AD17 is a safely blue district currently represented by Democratic Assemblywoman Clara Thomas, who is now running for state senate.
• Assembly District 24. Democrat Erica Roth will face Republican Terisia “Teri” Kolesnick in the general election. AD24 is considered a safe blue district and is currently represented by Democratic Assemblywoman Sarah Peters, who announced in October that she would not run for reelection, saying she was “ready for a new chapter.”
• Assembly District 27. The Democratic primary will be between Alex Velto and Heather Goulding. The winner will go on to compete against Republican Carmen Ortiz. AD27, considered safely blue, is currently represented by Democratic Assemblywoman Angie Taylor, who is now running for state senate.
• Assembly District 29. ✔ Democrat Joe Dalia will face the winner of the GOP primary, which is between Annette Dawson Owens and Yadusha Williams. AB29, which leans blue but has been considered competitive in recent cycles, is currently represented by Democratic Assemblywoman Lesley Cohen.
• Assembly District 34. Democrat Hanadi Nadeem will face the winner of the GOP primary, which is between Brandon Davis and Clem Ziroli III. AD34, a safely blue district, is currently represented by Democratic Assemblywoman Shannon Bilbray-Axelrod, who is now running for Clark County Commission.
• Assembly District 35. ✔ Democrat Sharifa Wahab is running against Republican Rebecca Edgeworth. The competitive district is currently represented by Democratic Assemblywoman Michelle Gorelow.

Incumbents facing primary challenge

In five assembly districts, incumbents will face both a primary and general election competitor:

• Assembly District 9. Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager, a Democrat, faces a primary challenge from Adeline Celio. Republican Erica A. Neely will challenge the winner. AD9 leans blue, but Yeager as a seasoned elected official in legislative leadership commands an extreme fundraising advantage.
• Assembly District 16. Incumbent Cecelia Gonzalez faces Eva Olivia Chase in the Democratic primary, while Benjamin Donlon, James William Neville, and Socorro Keenan compete in the Republican primary. Libertarian Jose Pena will also appear on the general election ballot. AD16 is considered a safe blue district.
• Assembly District 32. Incumbent Alexis Hansen faces Jason Bushey in the Republican primary, while Thomas Arnold and Marlene Drake compete in the Democratic primary. John C. Gerhardt, an independent candidate, will also appear on the general election ballot. AD32 is considered a safe Republican district.
• Assembly District 40. Incumbent P.K. O’Neill faces Drew Ribar in the Republican primary. That winner will face Democrat Katherine Ramsey in the general election. AD40 is considered a safe Republican district.
• Assembly District 42. Incumbent Tracy Brown-May faces Sayed Zaidi in the Democratic primary, while Katrin “Mrs. Fix it” Ivanoff and Kevin L. Child compete in the Republican primary. AD42 is considered a safe Democratic district.

Incumbents facing general election challenger

In 18 assembly districts, incumbents face no primary challenger but will face competition in the general. Those districts are:

• Assembly District 1. Democratic incumbent Danielle Monroe-Moreno will face Republican Garland Brinkley.
• Assembly District 2. ✔ Republican incumbent Heidi Kasama will face Democrat Ron Nelson in the competitive district. Kasama in August of last year announced she would challenge Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) but at the beginning of this year reversed course, saying she would drop her congressional campaign and seek reelection.
• Assembly District 3. Democratic incumbent Selena Torres will face Republican Michele Rizza and Libertarian Maximillian “Millian” Quinteros.
• Assembly District 5. Democratic incumbent Brittney Miller will face the winner of the Republican primary, which is between Alan Bigelow and Kelly Quinn. Libertarian Ronald Morgan will also appear on the general election ballot.
• Assembly District 8. Democratic incumbent Duy Nguyen will face Republican Kelly Chapman.
• Assembly District 12. Democratic incumbent Max Carter will face the winner of the Republican primary, which is between Al Rojas and Nancy Roecker.
• Assembly District 13. Republican incumbent Brian Hibbets will face Democrat Daniel Andrews.
• Assembly District 15. Democratic incumbent Howard Watts will face Republican Melissa Lynn Spence and Libertarian Jordy Prado.
• Assembly District 18. Democratic incumbent Venicia Considine will face Antario “Tiger” Brown.
• Assembly District 20. Democratic incumbent David Orentlicher will face Republican Stan Vaughan.
• Assembly District 21. ✔ Democratic incumbent Elaine Marzola will face the winner of the Republican primary, which is between April Arndt and Jon Petrick, in this competitive district.
• Assembly District 25. ✔ Democratic incumbent Selena La Rue Hatch will face Republican Diana Sande.
• Assembly District 26. Republican incumbent Rich DeLong will face the winner of the Democratic primary, which is between Diane “Nevada Moon” Sullivan and Scott Savage.
• Assembly District 30. Democratic incumbent Natha Anderson will face an independent candidate, Morgan Kolvet.
• Assembly District 31. Republican incumbent Jill Dickman will face Democrat Stuart Mackie.
• Assembly District 33. Republican incumbent Bert Gurr will face Libertarian Darryl Baber.
• Assembly District 37. ✔ Democratic incumbent Shea Backus will face Republican David Brog.
• Assembly District 39. Republican incumbent Ken Gray will face Democrat Erich Obermayr.
• Assembly District 41. Democratic incumbent Sandra Jauregui will face the winner of the GOP primary, which is between Guadalupe Reyes and Rafael Arroyo.

Editor’s Note: This article has been updated to reflect that AD24 will have no Democratic primary and AD33 will have a third-party candidate.